The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the lowest reading since 2014, according to the group’s report released Sept. 29. Households cited higher prices, and fuel costs in particular.
The drop came from both halves of the index. The Present Situation Index, which measures how consumers see business and job conditions now, fell 7.9 points to 109.3, per the Conference Board. The Expectations Index, which covers the next six months, fell 5.9 points to 63.6. It was the third straight monthly decline for the expectations measure.
Working backward from those changes, the overall index was 88.6 in August, the present-conditions gauge was 117.2 and the expectations gauge was 69.5. The survey ran Sept. 1 to 23, according to the Conference Board, which said the period included the federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
What consumers said about prices and business conditions
Dana Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist, said mentions of prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas rose “to new heights”. Respondents also wrote in about politics, trade and employment.
Views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. The Conference Board found that 18.5% of consumers rated conditions good, down from 18.8%, while 20.4% rated them bad, up from 17.3%. That leaves a net reading of negative 1.9%, a drop of 3.4 points. Looking ahead six months, 15.9% expected better business conditions and 25.4% expected worse, a net of negative 9.5%.
Confidence declined across most demographic groups and across all political affiliations, the Conference Board reported. On a six-month moving average, every age group and nearly all income groups trended lower. Generation Z and millennials held the highest confidence, while Generation X, baby boomers and the silent generation kept weakening.
Higher-income groups stayed generally more optimistic, but households earning $125,000 to $149,000 posted the largest decline in confidence over six months, per the release.
What households plan to buy
The purchase-plan data shows where consumers are trimming. On a six-month moving average, planned purchases of autos and homes both slipped, according to the Conference Board. Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones stayed the top categories, while plans to buy refrigerators and television sets fell the most.
Planned purchases of services pulled back overall. Restaurants, bars and takeout led the top five categories, followed by streaming and internet services, beauty and personal care, utilities and health care. Consumers expected to spend less on hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare and amusement parks.
Vacation plans rose by 0.5 points to 42.6%, but the gain was limited to domestic trips. Foreign travel plans declined.
The Conference Board also tracks family finances outside the headline index. The share of consumers calling their current finances bad exceeded the share calling them good for only the second time since the question began four years ago, the group said. The share who called a recession over the next 12 months somewhat likely rose.
Inflation expectations and interest rates
The survey also asked what consumers expect for prices over the next year. The average answer was 6.1% and the median was 5.1%, both up 0.3 points from August, the Conference Board said. The average sits a full percentage point above the median, which means a group of respondents gave much higher figures than the typical household.
A further 68.4% of consumers said they expect interest rates to rise over the coming year, up 5.2 points from the previous month.
Those expectations look large next to paychecks. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the 12 months to August, to $37.75. The average consumer expects prices to rise about twice as fast as that wage gain (6.1% divided by 3.1% is 1.97). The median consumer, at 5.1%, expects a rise about 1.6 times as fast.
On income, of those surveyed, 17.9% expected their income to rise and 15.4% expected it to fall, a net of positive 2.5%, down 3.0 points from August.
Consumer views on jobs and the JOLTS report
The Conference Board’s own labor gauge moved with the mood. In September, 23.6% of consumers said jobs were plentiful, down from 24.5%, and 21.9% said jobs were hard to get, up from 20.3%, the Conference Board. The gap narrowed to 1.7 points. Net expectations for the labor market fell to negative 14.4%, with 28.4% expecting fewer jobs and 14.0% expecting more.
The government’s numbers show a steadier picture. The BLS said job openings in August were 7.1 million, a rate of 4.3%, and described the change as little changed. The precise figure was 7.079 million, according to the BLS tables, and MarketScreener reported that this was down from 7.335 million in July, a decline of 256,000. Analysts had expected 7.228 million, according to the same report. The BLS also revised July openings up by 64,000.
Compared with a year earlier, openings were up 2.3%, from 6.919 million in August 2025, per the BLS. Hires rose 0.9% over the year to 5.192 million and total separations fell 2.6% to 5.070 million.
Layoffs and discharges were 1.641 million, or 1.0% of employment, and quits were 3.066 million, or 1.9%, the BLS said in the same release. Hires were 5.2 million, which works out to about 0.73 hires for every open job (5.192 million divided by 7.079 million).
Where the job openings fell
The decline in openings was concentrated in one region. The BLS data show the West lost 243,000 openings in August, and its openings rate fell 0.6 points to 4.1%. The Northeast fell 78,000 and the Midwest fell 6,000, while the South added 71,000. The four regions net to the national drop of 256,000, which means the West accounted for about 95% of it (243,000 divided by 256,000).
By industry, the BLS tables show health care and social assistance had 1.359 million openings, down 115,000, and professional and business services had 1.186 million, down 119,000. Manufacturing openings fell 54,000, to 522,000, and construction fell 48,000, to 251,000. Retail trade added 54,000 and finance and insurance added 49,000.
According to the BLS, small employers with 1 to 9 workers saw their openings rate drop
1.7 points to 4.3%. Large employers with 5,000 or more workers showed little change.
Hiring moved in the other direction in factories. Manufacturing hires rose 39,000 to 332,000, while construction hires fell 50,000 to 308,000.
Payrolls, unemployment and home prices
The BLS jobs report for August, released Sept. 4, showed payrolls up 162,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, with 7.0 million people unemployed. Set beside 7.1 million openings, that works out to about one job opening for each unemployed worker (7.079 million divided by 7.0 million is 1.01). Payroll growth in August was also more than five times the 12-month average of 31,000 jobs a month that the BLS reported (162,000 divided by 31,000 is 5.2).
A separate report released Sept. 29 showed housing values still rising in dollar terms. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index reported a 1.9% annual gain in July, up from 1.6% in June. The 10-city composite rose 3.4% and the 20-city composite rose 2.5%. Chicago led the metro areas with 6.9%, ahead of New York at 5.8% and Cleveland at 4.2%. Seattle had the steepest decline at negative 1.6%, followed by Las Vegas at negative 1.3% and Denver at negative 1.1%.
Rebecca Kaufman, an associate director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said July marked the “14th consecutive month of real declines” in home prices. The release put consumer price inflation at 3.4% over the year, faster than home prices. She also said, in the same release, that six of eight Eastern metro markets posted larger annual gains in July than in June, against two of eight Western markets.
