Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after a 0.6% rise in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its October CPI release on Nov. 10. The bureau did not publish a yearly inflation rate for most categories, including the headline number.
The reason is the 2025 government shutdown. The bureau said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so it has no October 2025 index to compare against. The single most-watched inflation figure is missing in the month it likely crossed 4%.
What the October CPI Showed
Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3%, the same as in September and August. Food rose 0.5%, with beef up 0.9%. Energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase. The bureau published 12-month changes for only three items with complete data. Gasoline was up 37.4% from a year earlier, new vehicles 0.7% and used cars and trucks down 3.3%.
Estimating the Missing Inflation Rate
The bureau’s guidance on missing data says a missing month can be approximated with the geometric mean of the months on either side, and it calls the results unofficial estimates. Applying that method to the bureau’s September 2025 and November 2025 indexes and the
October 2026 index gives a yearly headline rate of about 4.0%, up from the official 3.7% in September. Core comes to about 2.8%, food about 3.0% and shelter about 3.4%. These are calculations from the bureau’s published indexes, not official figures. Three straight months of 0.3% core inflation work out to about 3.7% a year if the pace holds, a calculation from the monthly rate. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%.
Fed Governor Calls for a Rate Hike
Hours before the release, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller said in a London speech that he leans toward a quarter-point rate increase in December. He said a half-point hike should be considered if October core inflation came in around 0.3% or higher. It came in at 0.3%. “Let’s just say it. September’s inflation data were bad. There was no silver lining,” Waller said.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, blamed the administration’s policies in a statement. “It’s time for Congress to act and deliver relief for families,” she said. The White House has said that gas and diesel prices will soon drop rapidly after new energy deals. The Fed’s policy committee meets Dec. 8 and 9. The bureau releases November CPI on Thursday, Dec. 10.
