The national average price of regular gasoline fell 11 cents in a week to $4.354 a gallon on Oct. 5, according to the Energy Information Administration. That is still $1.23, or 39%, above the same week last year.
What the EIA Says About Gas Prices This Week
The federal agency released the figure Oct. 6. Regular gasoline averaged about $4.465 the week before, which is $4.354 plus the 11.1-cent drop the EIA reported. A year ago the average was $3.124, the price implied by the $1.230 year-over-year increase.
AAA, which uses a different method, put the national average at $4.3685 on Oct. 6. On Oct. 1 AAA had reported $4.41, down from $4.48 a week earlier, $4.10 a month earlier and $3.16 a year earlier. The two sources disagree on September’s average. AAA said the monthly average was $4.33, which beat the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023 by 50 cents. The EIA’s October outlook put the September average at $4.35.
West Coast Gas Prices Run $1.82 Above the Gulf Coast
The EIA’s regional figures show a wide spread. Gulf Coast drivers paid $3.911 a gallon. West Coast drivers paid $5.727. California averaged $6.227 for regular. The gap between those two regions is $1.816 a gallon. On a 15-gallon fill-up, that is $58.67 on the Gulf Coast and $85.91 on the West Coast, a difference of $27.24. A California fill-up at the EIA’s state price costs $93.41.
AAA’s state range on Oct. 6 ran from $3.7219 to $6.3764. On Oct. 1 AAA listed California at $6.40 and Indiana at $3.81, a gap of $2.59. AAA’s Oct. 6 data showed Hawaii at $5.627. The weekly drop of 11.1 cents saves about $1.67 on a 15-gallon fill-up. The $1.23 gap with last year adds $18.45 to the same fill-up. At the same weekly pace, it would take about 11 more weeks of declines to erase that gap, per arithmetic on the EIA’s figures.
AAA’s all-time record for regular gasoline remains $5.0165, set June 14, 2022. This week’s AAA average of $4.3685 sits 64.8 cents below that mark. AAA’s Oct. 6 reading for the same fuel a year ago was $3.1333, which puts the increase at 39%, the same percentage the EIA reported on its own series. Compared with a year ago, the same 15-gallon fill-up at the national average costs $65.31 now and would have cost $46.86 then, an increase of $18.45.
Why Gas Prices Rose: the Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February. Crude traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped, and Iran has refused to reopen the waterway, according to AP’s Labor Day report. On Sept. 7 regular gas averaged $4.14, a record for Labor Day.
Tom Seng, an energy finance professor at Texas Christian University, said, “Everything points to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz.” PBS NewsHour reported that U.S. refineries were running at 98% capacity during Texas heat, leaving little room for a disruption. Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged the increase, saying, “we’re doing everything we can to push them down.” The previous Labor Day record was $3.82 a gallon, set in 2012, PBS said.
Crude oil retreated to the $90 range in late September, AAA said, which helped pump prices ease. The EIA’s October outlook, released Oct. 6, says it now expects Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
Gas Prices Since Labor Day
AP reported a national average of $4.14 on Sept. 7, and AAA’s figures show the price peaked in the weeks after that. AAA’s average was $4.10 a month before Oct. 1, stood at $4.48 a week before Oct. 1 and has since eased to $4.41 and then $4.3685. Measured against AAA’s own readings, the Oct. 6 price is 22.85 cents, or 5.5%, above the Labor Day level AP cited.
The decline this week follows a rise, and prices remain above where they stood at the Labor Day record. AP said regular gas was nearly $1 above its level a year earlier on Labor Day. By Oct. 5 that gap had grown to $1.23 by the EIA’s measure.
Gas Price Forecast for the Rest Of 2026 and 2027
The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts regular gasoline at $3.91 a gallon on average for 2026 and just under $3.60 in 2027. Brent is forecast at $96 a barrel for 2026 and $84 for 2027. The 2027 gasoline forecast is about 75 cents below this week’s price. The agency’s outlook says convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and workarounds, including bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers, will let production and exports from the Middle East generally rise through the forecast period.
The outlook also covers winter fuel. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five year seasonal average in September and are expected to stay about 20% below the 2021 to 2025 average through the winter, the agency said. Electric vehicle owners are seeing a steadier price. AAA said public charging stations averaged 42 cents per kilowatt-hour on Oct. 1, which AAA described as steady.
AAA reported on Oct. 1 that U.S. gasoline demand fell to 8.68 million barrels a day and that domestic gasoline supply dropped to 204.4 million barrels. U.S. crude inventories rose to 427.3 million barrels, 2% above the five-year average. The EIA’s next weekly retail price update is due Oct. 14, and AAA publishes its national average daily.
