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Beige Book: Diesel Costs Squeeze Lower-Income Shoppers

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A person refueling a silver vehicle using a yellow Shell fuel pump nozzle.

The Federal Reserve’s October Beige Book says higher oil prices reached every one of its 12 districts, and diesel is the fuel carrying that cost into grocery aisles and store shelves. The Fed released the report Oct. 14, and the Energy Information Administration puts U.S. diesel at $6.179 a gallon, up $2.514 from a year ago.

What the Beige Book Found

The Beige Book is a collection of anecdotes from business contacts gathered by the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks. This edition rests on information collected through Oct. 5, according to the Fed’s national summary.

Economic growth was mixed. Two districts reported moderate growth, three reported modest growth, four reported slight growth and three reported no significant change. Consumer spending was flat to slightly higher in most districts, and the summary said spending was concentrated among higher-income households.

Price growth was mostly moderate, but three districts described it as robust and four said the pace had picked up. The summary said higher oil prices affected every district, and that diesel costs stayed elevated. In the report’s words, “fuel surcharges were passing on increased costs throughout the supply chain,” according to the full report.

Other cost pressures came from commodities, tariffs and insurance. Consumer-facing firms told the Fed their margins were tighter because price-sensitive customers resisted increases. The firms are raising some prices selectively, offering targeted incentives and changing menus, the summary said. They expect more increases as contracts and hedges are renegotiated.

Diesel Prices in the Federal Data

The Energy Information Administration’s weekly fuel update shows U.S. on-highway diesel at $6.179 a gallon for the week of Oct. 12, down 2 cents from the prior week. A year earlier the price was $3.665, a figure calculated by subtracting the agency’s reported $2.514 increase. That works out to a 68.6% rise in 12 months.

Regular gasoline was $4.331 a gallon, up $1.270 from a year ago. By the same arithmetic, gasoline is up 41.5%. Diesel has risen faster in percentage terms, and diesel now costs $1.85 a gallon more than gasoline. Both are calculations from the EIA figures. Every region the agency tracks shows a year-over-year increase of at least $2. The Lower Atlantic region was the cheapest at $5.645, up $2.006. The West Coast was the most expensive at $7.240, and California reached $8.091, up $3.151 from a year earlier.

The Beige Book and the EIA do not match on diesel’s size. A regional grocery chain told the Richmond Fed that diesel was “rising thirty percent since last year.” The EIA’s national retail price is up about 69%. The report does not say whether the grocer was describing contract rates, a specific fuel grade or a different time span. The two sources describe different prices, and the Fed report is a contact’s account while the EIA reports a national retail average.

How Fuel Reaches the Grocery Bill

The Richmond Fed report gave an example of how freight costs show up in food. The grocer said it now pays more to transport a head of lettuce from California than the lettuce costs, the report said. In Cleveland, a builder called the combination of high fuel costs and tariffs a “double whammy,” according to the full report. The Cleveland Fed said consumer spending was flat after four periods of decline, and it named high fuel prices as the main drag.

Kansas City contacts reported rising diesel and shipping costs as a top concern. The report also said contacts in rural Colorado “reported intermittent diesel shortages at gas stations in recent weeks.” In Boston, home heating oil prices rose sharply from a year earlier, and contacts in northern Maine said they were more pessimistic about discretionary spending because of heating costs.

The summary noted that Richmond contacts said consumers were trading off spending because of higher gasoline prices. Atlanta said low- and moderate-income consumers were strained by fuel and food costs. Atlanta also reported record refining margins and said poultry prices were falling because of a glut.

Who is Cutting Back

The report separates shoppers by income. In the New York district, “signs of strain among lower-income households were evident,” the Fed said. Atlanta said high-end retail was strong while lower tiers were flat or contracting. A Dallas summary item mentioned some lower-income customers being more cautious.

A vehicle repair shop in the Minneapolis district said “money is tight and people are being more conservative,” according to the full report. Kansas City said households were eating at home and delaying purchases. St. Louis described consumers as “stressed but selective.”

Wages are part of the squeeze. The summary said wage growth was moderate to slight, and that inflation increased pressure for higher pay and rising benefit costs. In Boston, some workers were looking for new jobs because their wages lagged inflation. In Philadelphia, one retailer planned a 4% raise, up from 2.5% last year. Atlanta reported mostly 2% to 3% annual increases.

What Else the Fed Heard on Jobs

Employment was little changed overall. Five districts reported that some firms had “delayed hiring, or anticipated less job creation after increasing productivity by investing in AI.” The report said shortages of specialized, technical and skilled trade workers persisted.

A logistics firm in the St. Louis district told the Fed that companies were using recently returned tariff rebates to defer future price increases, according to the full report. St. Louis also said businesses were concerned about health care costs. Housing was mixed. Boston reported new weakness in home sales, Atlanta saw moderate growth and San Francisco reported a slight decline. Firms in the report expect slight growth, mainly in manufacturing, but cited persistent uncertainty.

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