Diesel prices reached $6.29 a gallon as of Nov. 2, up $2.54 from a year earlier, while regular gasoline averaged $4.15, up $1.13, according to the Energy Information Administration. Both fell from the week before, diesel by 6 cents and gasoline by 12 cents. The year-over-year jumps work out to 68% for diesel and 38% for gasoline, a calculation from the EIA figures. Diesel now costs $2.14 a gallon more than gasoline, a calculation from the two prices.
What the September CPI Showed About Gasoline
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and 34.2% over the year. The agency said gasoline accounted for “over half of the monthly all items increase.” Energy as a whole rose 20.4% over 12 months, against 2.5% for food and 3.2% for shelter. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 2.6%. Fuel is the reason the headline number sits a full point above core.
Why Refiners Are Making Less Gasoline
The EIA published an analysis on Nov. 5 that points to the refineries. Gasoline made up less than 45% of the crude oil U.S. refiners processed from January through August, below the five-year low in every one of those months. Refiners shifted output toward distillate fuel oil and jet fuel, where margins are higher.
That shift explains why diesel climbed faster than gasoline. A refinery that earns more on diesel and jet fuel makes more of them, and gasoline gets the remainder. The EIA also reported that refinery utilization ran above 95% from May through September, the highest for those months since 1998. The plants were running flat out and still produced less gasoline per barrel.
What the EIA Forecast Says
The EIA’s October outlook put the 2026 average at $3.91 for gasoline and $5.19 for diesel, both below today’s pump prices. The agency built that forecast on inputs through Oct. 1 and expects prices to decline in 2027, to $3.56 for gasoline and $4.49 for diesel. The best case for a quick drop is already visible in the weekly data, which shows prices easing for the most recent week.
The year-over-year gap is still large: a driver paid about $3.02 a gallon for gasoline at this point last year, and a trucker paid about $3.75 for diesel, a calculation from the EIA’s year-ago changes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October’s consumer price index on Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and the EIA updates its weekly pump prices the same day.
