Gasoline prices rose 34.2% over the 12 months ended in September, and by a simple calculation that increase accounts for about one percentage point of the 3.7% rise in the Consumer Price Index. Energy overall accounts for roughly 1.3 points. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the figures on Oct. 14. Its Economics Daily summary of the data, dated Oct. 16, shows fuel oil up 74.2% and airline fares up 22.4% over the same period.
What the September CPI Report Showed
The CPI for all items rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 0.4% in August, according to the BLS release. The 12-month rate was 3.7%. The energy index rose 5.2% in the month and 20.4% over the year. Gasoline rose 9.1% in September after seasonal adjustment and 6.5% before it. Fuel oil rose 15.3% in the month. Airline fares rose 1.2%.
Other categories were quiet. Food prices were unchanged in September and rose 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter rose 0.4% in the month and 3.2% over the year. The index excluding food and energy, known as core, rose 0.3% in September and 2.6% over 12 months. The BLS summary of 12-month changes also lists categories that fell. Motor vehicle insurance dropped 5.0%, used cars and trucks fell 1.5% and dairy products fell 0.7%. Electricity rose 4.4% and piped natural gas rose 5.0%.
How Much Gasoline Adds to the 3.7% Inflation Rate
The BLS publishes a relative importance table that shows how much each item counts in the index. In the December 2025 table, which uses 2024 spending weights, gasoline made up 2.895% of the all-items index for urban consumers. Energy as a whole made up 6.383%.
The following figures are calculations, not BLS statistics. Multiplying gasoline’s weight by its 12-month increase gives 2.895% times 34.2%, or about 0.99 percentage points. Multiplying the energy weight by the 20.4% energy increase gives about 1.30 points.
That leaves roughly 2.4 points of the 3.7% from the other 93.6% of the basket, an average increase of about 2.6% for everything that is not energy. That matches the 2.6% core rate the BLS reported. The same method applies to the month. Gasoline’s 9.1% seasonally adjusted rise times its weight is about 0.26 points of the 0.6% monthly gain. Energy’s 5.2% rise times its weight is about 0.33 points.
These estimates are rough. The weights date from December 2025, and gasoline’s share of spending changes as its price moves, so the true contribution in the BLS’s own calculation will differ somewhat. The order of magnitude holds: a category worth under 3% of the index supplied about a quarter of the annual increase.
What Gas Costs at the Pump Now
The Energy Information Administration reported a U.S. weekly average retail price for regular gasoline of $4.284 a gallon on Oct. 19. That was down $0.047 from $4.331 a week earlier. The agency’s table shows a change of $1.265 from a year ago, which implies a price of about $3.019 in October 2025.
AAA, the motorists’ group, reported a national average of $4.3612 on Oct. 8, down about 5 cents from the prior week and $3.1156 a year earlier. AAA said it was the first October with a national average above $4 a gallon. Its page banner showed $4.2786 as of Oct. 20. The two sources use different survey methods and dates, which accounts for the gap between $4.284 and $4.2786.
AAA also reported that September averaged $4.33 a gallon, 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. The year-over-year percentages differ by source for a similar reason. Using EIA’s two weekly figures, the Oct. 19 price is about 42% above a year earlier.
That is a calculation. The BLS figure of 34.2% compares monthly gasoline price indexes for September 2026 and September 2025, which covers a different period and a different measurement. State prices vary widely. AAA listed California at $6.34 on Oct. 8, Hawaii at $5.63 and Washington at $5.46. Ohio was lowest at $3.71, followed by Indiana at $3.72.
What a Fill-Up Costs Compared with a Year Ago
A 15-gallon fill-up of regular at EIA’s $4.284 costs about $64.26. At the year-ago price of about $3.019, the same fill-up cost about $45.29. The difference is about $18.98 per tank. These are calculations that assume a 15-gallon purchase and the national average. A driver who fills up once a week would pay about $987 more over 52 weeks at those prices. Drivers in California paid a larger premium. At AAA’s $6.34, the same 15 gallons cost $95.10 on Oct. 8.
What Federal Reserve Officials Said About Energy and Inflation
Federal Reserve officials have spoken about energy prices in recent weeks. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said in an Oct. 1 speech on the economy that “the predominant factor driving the recent pickup in headline inflation is energy prices.” He said he expects inflation to stay elevated in the short run and to resume declining as the effects of energy and other price shocks fade.
He also said he remains concerned about the risk of higher energy prices leading to a persistent rise in inflation more broadly. Governor Michael Barr took a firmer view in a Sept. 29 speech. “High energy prices are still with us,” he said. He added that inflation is too high and that his base case calls for further policy adjustments.
Governor Christopher Waller said in an Oct. 8 speech on projections that he had hoped the oil price surge would not have a lasting effect on inflation. He said low inventories and damaged infrastructure could keep oil prices high through 2027. “I anticipate additional hikes,” he said, adding that they do not need to come at consecutive meetings.
Jefferson said the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point, to 3.75% to 4%. The officials differ on how much weight to give energy: Jefferson emphasizes that the effects can fade, while Barr and Waller point to risks that high energy prices persist and that further increases in the policy rate will be needed.
What to Watch after the September CPI Release
The EIA’s next weekly gasoline update is scheduled for Oct. 27. AAA’s daily national average, which has slipped from $4.4137 on Oct. 1 to $4.2786 on Oct. 20, will show whether the recent decline continues. The BLS has released the September report. Gasoline’s weight in the index, about 2.9%, means each 10% move in pump prices shifts the all-items rate by roughly 0.3 points on this arithmetic. Core inflation at 2.6% shows the rest of the basket rising at a slower pace than the headline figure.
