Wholesale prices in the United States rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline at the producer level rose 20.3%, and energy accounted for more than 80% of the jump in goods prices.
The producer price index measures what businesses receive for goods and services before they reach shoppers. The bureau released the September figures on Oct. 15.
What the Producer Price Index Showed
The final demand index rose 1.3% in September after gains of 0.5% in August and 0.2% in July, the BLS reported. The bureau called it “the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022.” Over the 12 months that ended in September, final demand prices rose 6.3% before seasonal adjustment.
Goods prices rose 2.6%. The bureau said that is the largest increase since the series began in December 2009. Energy goods rose 10.8%, foods rose 1.2% and goods other than food and energy rose 0.3%. Gasoline prices rose 20.3% and accounted for about half of the goods increase, the bureau said.
Services prices rose 0.8%. Trade margins, the gap between what retailers and wholesalers pay and charge, rose 1.4% and made up nearly half of that gain. Transportation and warehousing prices rose 3.4%, with airline passenger services and truck freight both higher.
Food prices showed a split. Fresh and dry vegetables rose, while chicken egg prices fell 39.7% and raw milk fell 12.3%. The bureau also reported a core measure that leaves out foods, energy and trade services. It rose 0.5% in September and 5.0% over 12 months.
Prices Further Up the Supply Chain
Intermediate demand tracks goods and services that businesses buy to make other products. The BLS data show larger swings there than in final demand. Processed goods for intermediate demand rose 2.5% in September, with energy goods up 10.2%. Unprocessed goods rose 8.4%, led by energy materials at 22.2%. Crude petroleum alone rose 28.3%. Diesel fuel in the processed category rose 21.0%.
The bureau’s production-stage breakdown shows where costs are accumulating. Stage 2 goods inputs rose 8.9% in September, and its overall index rose 3.9%, which is 13.9% above a year earlier. Stage 1 rose 2.2% for the month and 13.5% for the year. Stage 4, the index closest to final sale, rose 1.1% for the month and 7.9% for the year. Calculation from those figures: the 12-month gain in Stage 2 (13.9%) is about 1.8 times the 7.9% gain in Stage 4. Input costs have risen faster than the prices closest to final sale.
Why Retail Gasoline Has Not Followed
A 20.3% rise in producer gasoline prices did not show up at the pump in the same way. The Energy Information Administration reported that regular gasoline averaged $4.331 per gallon on Oct. 12, down from $4.465 on Sept. 28. That is a drop of 13.4 cents in two weeks.
The producer price index offers one explanation. The bureau reported that margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3% in September. Retailers paid more for fuel and, according to that figure, kept less of each sale. The bureau does not say the margin drop explains the pump price trend. The two figures appear in separate tables.
The pump price is still far above last year. The EIA said regular gasoline is up $1.270 from a year earlier, from an implied $3.061. Calculation from those EIA figures: that is a 41.5% increase. Diesel at $6.179 is up $2.514 from an implied $3.665, a 68.6% increase by the same method. California shows the widest gap. Gasoline there was $6.104 and diesel was $8.091. The EIA put the California gasoline premium over the national average at $1.773, compared with $1.396 a year ago.
What the Energy Agency Says Is Driving Crude
The EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook, published Oct. 6, forecasts Brent crude at $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter. That is $14 higher than the agency projected a month earlier. The EIA said retail gasoline averaged $4.35 per gallon in September.
The agency assumes oil flows from the Middle East remain constrained through the fourth quarter. It pointed to attacks on a pipeline in Saudi Arabia as showing “the potential for continued volatility in physical oil flows and oil prices.” It also cited global inventory draws and what it called extreme tightness in diesel markets.
The EIA expects Middle East production and exports to rise over the forecast period through convoys, bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers. Its forecast includes a 40 million barrel exchange from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It does not account for a G7 announcement made on Oct. 2.
Import and Export Prices Show the Same Pressure
The bureau released import and export price data on Oct. 16. Import prices rose 1.1% in September after a 0.5% gain in August, and they are up 8.1% over 12 months. Export prices rose 2.2% in September and are up 11.6% over 12 months.
Import fuel prices rose 4.8% for the month and 34.5% for the year. Import natural gas prices are up 96.5% from September 2025. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% in September and 6.0% over 12 months. Prices for imports from China rose 0.7% in September, which the bureau said is the largest monthly advance since December 2021. The 12-month rise for China is 3.1%. Import air passenger fares rose 12.6%.
Agricultural exports also climbed. The bureau said “Agricultural export prices have not declined on a monthly basis since December 2025.” Soybeans, corn and wheat led the September gain of 2.6%. Calculation from the bureau’s 12-month figures: export prices rose 11.6% while import prices rose 8.1%, so the ratio of export to import prices is up about 3.2%. The bureau’s terms-of-trade index with the European Union rose 3.6% in September, the largest one-month advance for that index.
Factory Output Rose While Car Production Fell
The Federal Reserve’s industrial production report for September, released Oct. 16, showed output up 0.7% after a 0.1% gain in August. Capacity utilization was 76.9%, 2.5 percentage points below its long-run average.
Utilities output rose 3.5%, and manufacturing rose 0.3%. Motor vehicles and parts output fell 3.0%. Mining rose 0.2%, and mining capacity utilization reached 87.5%, 2.3 points above its long-run average. The Fed plans an annual revision of the series on Nov. 24 that moves the base year to 2022.
